Bonjour Monsieur Lafoy,
J'ai un dilemme.
Cette information pourrait être importante pour les
Laowai dans la Chine du Nord.
Cependant, je sais qu'il est méchant d'écrire en anglais ici.
Je n'ai pas le temps de traduire cela en français. Je ferai une traduction plus tard, ok?
Ce qui suit est une « lettre de Pâques » à ma famille.
Cordialement,
Stephen唐士明Thomas
I wish you a peaceful Easter...
Dear Family,
...but, the Second Korean War is coming?
I teach a Chinese guy English about two times a week. Exhausting work for both of us - he is using the Soviet model of first getting the pronunciation of each sound correct by learning the exact positions of the tongue, teeth, mouth, and lips. However, he is making remarkable progress.
So we generally take a break (when he is too beat to continue to try to pronounce English correctly) in the middle of class and have a discussion in Chinese. Interesting guy - quite intelligent and has lived for ten years in Japan which gives him a different perspective on reality than most people I know. (Japanese is important to me as it is one of the four leading intellectual languages in today's world.)
The last two English classes, I have been discussing with him as to what his mother, younger brother & wife (who are in China) should do in the event of a nuclear war between North Korea and the U.S.
(He estimates the chances of war at about 10% during the next few weeks, I am figuring on about 50%.)
The information which follows is based upon what I have read in mainstream French and Spanish online newspapers.
(Baby Kim is quite useful to improve my linguistic abilities.)
Furthermore, as a reality check, I have had about three hours of verbal discussions in Chinese. I am too lazy at the moment to read the news (in Mandarin or Cantonese) about this subject.
Another reality check would be input from Sue who reads a great deal of alternative media. Ditto for the rest of the family who may have been following the news in English. And of course, since Dad fought in the First Korean War...
***
For the last ten years plus, the Kim dynasty has been threatening to destroy the United States by use of the atom bomb.
Their warm feelings towards our country can be represented by the following pictures:
They have already set off five underground atomic bombs which have caused certain problems in China due to the related small earthquakes. Currently, North Korea has about twenty atomic bombs - at the level of the technology which destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Right now, they have the capacity to reach our military bases in Korea, Taiwan, Okinawa, Tokyo, and Guam. In two or three years, they may have the capacity to hit the United States.
Not the city of Washington (as suggested in this propaganda), but definitely the West Coast.
Obama's attempts to solve this problem since 2005 have been futile.
The North Koreans continue to explode bombs, test their missiles and (probably) try to make the warheads smaller so that they can go a longer distance.
One of the missiles shown in the parade the day before yesterday was possibly the prototype of an intercontinental missile. The one that they tested after the parade was not. (Fortunately, their missile exploded immediately - we have an aircraft carrier just around the corner.)
Trump (who according to CNN has an attention span of a four-year-old) has threatened North Korea with the destruction (with conventional weapons) of a nuclear testing site on the east coast of Korea if they make any more "experiments" there. Chances are that if N. Korea is successful in shooting off a missile (from a base on the west coast of Korea) that we will try to shoot this down. In both cases, the Second Korean War may well start.
The next N. Korean missile test/atom bomb test will probably take place on April 25 - on their holiday to celebrate the birthday of their army.
***
Now to my student. The Chinese guy's nom de guerre is "Paul". He claims to have worked for about ten years as a businessman in Japan. Now he claims to need to learn English in order to get a job in Germany.
I do not get the impression that he is a businessman. Clothes, behaviour, and interests would indicate that he is more likely to be part of the diplomatic staff. At the moment there is spy scare in China with rewards in the thousands of dollars for denouncing foreign spies. Could be that the "Cultural Section" of the Mainland Chinese Embassy is sounding me out (again). No problem - I have no desire to destroy the health of my lungs by visiting Mainland China - and thus am not interested in a visa. In any case, for "his own security" I have advised Paul that we should avoid talking about all areas which are sensitive in a military sense. Advice which he has not followed.
Paul's direct family (wife and son) live in Germany. The rest (mother, brother & brother's wife) live in the city of Dalian which is located near the end of the Liaodong peninsula.
The following link indicates the problem that his family in China is facing.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalia...Dalian_Prefecture_within_Liaoning_(China).png
If the Cold War heats up in Korea, his family will have the choice to stay at home, go to a shelter, or flee.
(It should be said that the issue here is the health of all of them, but most important, the fertility of younger brother and his wife. Shared (brutal) consensus is that filial piety gives the mother (who is 79) very low status in this particular situation. After all, the most filial obligation of a son is to have offspring.
First option: staying at home.
They live on the 23rd floor of an apartment building which has only one floor above them. Windows face south. Radioactive winds would come from the north and east. This high location would provide a certain degree of security against looters. However, I do not know how thick the walls (against radiation) are.
Second option: going to a shelter. These are underground caves which were excavated during the Cultural Revolution. About 15 minutes by foot. Advantage is that there would be thick protection against radiation. Disadvantages would be that this shelter would be overcrowded and thus frequently ventilated (many open entrances) - thus allowing radiation in. Under army control, thus safe from criminals.
Third option: fleeing to the west or to the south with their car. (Driving directly to the south is not an option as the traffic jams would slow things down to the point that things could quickly get radioactive. Figure that they would have to go through Peking - and MANY people would be fleeing this 20 million people city.)
Fleeing to the west means first going north in the direction of North Korea - directly into the fallout if the winds are blowing the wrong way. Even if there is no immediate fallout, it would take about four hours to leave the Liaoning Peninsula and then go west.
This peninsula probably would be quickly blocked by the army and the airforce (the highways make good landing places.) MAJOR military bases in this region of China. Thus, his family could find themselves stuck on the highway while grey snowflakes of radioactive ash fall on them.
An alternative would be to drive the car 15 minutes to the local port and hope that they could get on one of the last ferries before the military confiscates all shipping. Then ship the car and themselves to Shanghai and go off to a "vacation" in the (unpolluted) south. Or get to the international airport - the Chinese do not need visas to visit Thailand. In both cases, this would be like the panic during the last days of Saigon.
I have suggested that besides packing food, water, and medicine in the car, that they also prepare a large amount of cash. (No point during an emergency to wait in line to get cash.) This being China, prices for tickets in the ferries/airplanes might go up by 500%.
If they can`t get through the mobs around the airport or the port, or if the military has closed everything down, then they can always go back home. But it is worth a try.
Love,
Stephen
P.S. One of the frustrating things about the Chinese is that they are pathological liars. Thus, it is possible that "Paul's" family does not live in Dalian. And that the rest was simply nonsense to test my interest in military affairs. I will suggest that he turns off the recorder on his smartphone while we are having our discussions in Chinese - this is a bit too obvious...
